Barack Obama is President-Elect of the United States, as everyone now knows. I want to say how I think he achieved it; what this election means in terms of American history; and something about what his Presidency might mean for the world.
Obama won this election not this autumn, in my view, but before Easter, when Obamamania at its height put him clearly ahead of Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination. He chose to stand for hope rather than fear, for change and something new, and for transcending the American past; she made the mistake, at that time, of seeming to argue for a return to something, for retreat to a non-existent experience, and for winning the culture wars of the nineties. It was that strategic victory that I think was decisive because in my view, Hillary would have beaten John McCain last night just as clearly as Obama did. In fact by the end the financial crisis would have played well to her working-class, blue collar appeal. She would have divided Americans more than Obama promises to do, but I think the economy would have won it for her - which is why I say the primary campaign was so critical. It was not so much Obamamania that triumphed yesterday, as a traditional cry for fairness and for change.
Obama's election is historic of course in a country in which, when it was founded, he could have been a slave, without rights. For a clear majority of Americans to have chosen him shows how much things have changed there since the sixties, and that white racists and ultra-conservatives no longer have a political veto over there. His nominaiton and election show too, though, how much the civil rights movement and black America have the,selves changed: he could never have been elected had he occupied the traditional welfarist position of figures like Jesse Jackson - to win the White House, Obama needed to transcend, at least to some extent. I don't think we will ever again see a serious black candidate for office in America standing on a predictable or traditional platform; I think may may well see a proliferation of Mitt Romneys, Condy Rices, Bobby Jindals, and candidates of all backgrounds now standing on all kinds of ground. Obama's achievement is to have broken the familiar mould. A lot, though, will depend on how he governs and on how many of those new candidates break through. If his administration ends in abject failure he may be remembered only for the fact of his election - which may prove not to have been the massive step forward it seems now.
Finally, the world. Dmitri Medvedev has already made a stupid intervention recalling the Cuban missile crisis and making it more difficult, not easier, for President Obama to take a moderate line with Russia next year. I doubt Russia will find that US policy changes, much. I'm sure they will leave Iraq more quickly - Obama will disappoint millions if they do not. I fear Obama may not redouble American efforts in Afghanistan, but hope he will. I think we will see some more positive engagement over Iran, but I hope for no dramatic change in policy towards Israel, though support for moderate elements in Israel itself would be welcome. I have no fear of a new protectionism, unlike Rupert Murdoch: I think this new President will put relations with Europe, Canada and Africa ahead of that.
The biggest change will be on climate, energy, Kyoto and all that: to have a US President who's actually committed to action in the same way as European governments and others is really a revolution. I'd like to see him now insist on action now, not just distant targets; and that others do not retreat now that economic times are tough.
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