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How long can this go on?
Does anyone really expect that any one state can decide this race now? It's as though American voters are sharing one huge electoral poppadom: each state breaks off half of what's left and nibbles, but no one dares finish the whole thing. Yes, in time you're left with just tiny little crumbs, and no where to put your lime pickle - but it's surprising how long that can take.
In Pennsylvania, Hillary has won by more than enough to have earned the right to continue, if not this time by enough to transform the look of the race. But for the moment, the potential nominees are locked in a Celebrity Deathmatch, a form of wrestling in which Hillary has experience.
But what hope does she really have? The longer she can hang on, the more blue-collar concerns about the economy may lead voters to turn to her, rather than the more upbeat Obama - I note from this Politico article by David Paul Kuhn that voters most concerned about the economy broke for her. And the grimmer and more desperate this gets, and the dirtier and more negative the debate, the more chance she may have of landing a decisive blow, or trip up her opponent so that the superdelegates she needs lose faith in him - so I expect her to go lower than she has already. I'm as depressed by that as the leader writers at the New York Times.
That's why I now hope Obama can finish this before long. I used to pooh-pooh the conventional idea that the ongoing struggle would hurt the Democrats in November: I think for a while the excitement put McCain in the shade and created a feeling of inevitability about a Democratic victory in the general election. But that depended on a positive, attractive contest. Now that one candidate depends on playing it rough, and the other seems unable to resist being pulled down with her, wounds could be suffered that will hurt later.
A primary like Pennsylvania still shakes the timer, but if Hillary fails to build yet further momentum, the sand may now slowly settle. The math, as the Americans say, is still on Obama's side. Like a nervous golfer he gets the ball nearer to the hole with each putt, yet fails frustratingly to sink it (where on earth am I getting these crazed images from today?) If he can win big in Indiana though, or even more importantly in North Carolina in two weeks time, perhaps that will finally bring the end in sight, and he can give the coup de grace in West Virginia or Oregon.
Or could it still go down to the Convention?
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