Principle? Quixotry?
SouthbankSteve/CreativeCommons
What on earth does he think he's doing? I'm astonished that David Davis has decided to quit the shadow cabinet to fight a by-election, he hopes on the issue of liberty, and how the government, he would argue, is eroding it in this country. I feel knocked down with a big feather. What's got into him?
I don't doubt his motives: politicans' motives are always mixed, by which I mean that they always calculate, always seek political advantage, but always, too, act on their convictions, a constant element in their reasoning that cynical observers often overlook. I'm sure Davis sincerely feels this is a fundamental issue of principle and that he must do something to take a personal stand on it. You have to admire his preparedness to put this ahead of a probable future as Home Secretary, a job any MP would want, and I find it difficult to conceive of this as any sort of Machiavellian leadership marker: if David Cameron fails to win the next election and is deposed, Davis's prospects of succeeding him will be hindered, not helped, by this uncompromising stand on civil liberties.
Sincerity, though, isn't the same as judgment, and this seems misjudged to me. With the Tories wearing down the government for the first time in a decade, with possible victory over the horizon, now, surely, is the time for discipline and focus - not quixotry like this. Davis has been Cameron's best player, and his captain needs him. He's campaigned very successfully on terrorist detention and on ID cards, along the way making a real contribution to changing the sound and feel of conservatism - doesn't he feel a political duty to use these political gains to help his party? Instead of this, Davis's move risks dissipating Tory energy on these issues and making them into an East Yorkshire sideshow. Labour spin doctors may be delighted at some diversion from their own leader's troubles, and they may yet spoil Davis's gain by refusing to field a candidate at Haltemprice and Howden.
He's bound to win. His only serious electoral rival would be a LibDem candidate, based on general election results, and since Nick Clegg's not going to put one up, that's really that. Clegg's decision must be right, I think, because the nature of Davis's stand means they cannot creible oppose him - or if they do, they have no chance of upstaging him or even explaining their candidature with any cogency. But the risk is that, unless he can gain strong support from LibDem sympathisers, Davis may end up getting less support than he hopes - anything less than 70% would be failure, I think - on a low turnout. That would not be a personal or party disaster but it would prove this venture misjudged. To justify what he's doing, I think he needs to generate serious media interest in the contest and his chosen issue - and to achieve an overwhelming victory, say 80% of a 60%-plus turnout. A personal triumph like that would enhance him personally and potentially reopen minds on fundamental freedoms.
What would I do if I ran Labour's campaign? I wouldn't. The wisest thing Labour can do is reject this as a stunt and refuse to have anything to do with it. Then, hope his campaign is forgotten in a hot and eventful summer.
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